In addition, it is a monarchy that has grounded its legitimacy in a semi-magical origin story about the god-like qualities of the Kim blood line. Nevertheless, a family member is more likely to be the successor than not, given the fact that DPRK is a monarchy. And if the current North Korean leader were to live a long life, being viewed as a likely successor might not enhance one's life expectancy, as was the case for Kim's half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, who was assassinated in Malaysia in 2017. Still, it is worth noting that DPRK has never had a female head of state. officials who have met with the Kims have described a particularly close (but hierarchical) relationship, even in the face of speculation that she has occasionally fallen out of favor. Recently there has been much speculation about Chairman Kim's sister, Kim Yo-jong, as a possible successor. The successor will likely be a member of the Kim family. The chair of that committee will provide the best clue as to the new head of state. Any announcement regarding the current leader would likely include details about the composition of the funeral committee.
In the previous two instances of political transition, the government reported the leader's passing via state broadcast within a few days. So, if the past is any guide, what might we expect? Still, on the positive side of the ledger is the fact that North Korea, officially known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea or DPRK, often seems to follow a set playbook. A data set of two does not inspire much confidence, literally or figuratively. And in this case, the usual analytic challenges are compounded by the fact that this relatively young country has had only two leadership changes since its founding in 1948. For good and understandable reasons, analysts have often gotten Pyongyang wrong. Predicting what might happen in North Korea is a tricky business. What would happen if Kim Jong-un died suddenly?
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